轻骨料混凝土材料的强度指标及其统计参数

根据有关标准更新换代前后相关规定的变化和已有的研究成果,分析得到轻骨料混凝土轴心抗压强度、轴心抗拉强度与立方体抗压强度之间的换算关系。根据构件材性随机变量κC的概率密度函数的数学模型,按照随机变量函数统计参数的运算法则,得出轻骨料混凝土强度的统计参数。基于该统计参数和材料强度标准值的定义,得出轻骨料混凝土轴心抗压强度和轴心抗拉强度的标准值。     

Reliability of corrosion-damaged steel structures using interval probability theory

Engineering decisions concerning the performance of existing structures must be made in the presence of uncertainties. The remaining capacity of corroded steel structures provides a good example of different aspects of uncertainty. These include: an unknown or partially known extent of damage; a variability in loading and an uncertain reserve of structural capacity depending on the mode of failure. The theory of structural reliability has been developed to provide a method of analysis for structural safety. In this paper, methods are proposed to compute the component reliability of corrosion-damaged steel members. The application of a recently developed theory called interval probability theory for system reliability is illustrated using the data obtained from actual samples of corroded beams.     

Effect of spatial variability on arma modelling of ground motion

The Autoregressive-Moving Average (ARMA) process is an efficient method for describing ground motion through a small number of parameters. By relating these parameters to physical variables, it is possible to reasonably predict the ground motion of a site where no strong motion data has been recorded. In this paper, the effects of spatial variability on modelling strong ground motion with ARMA processes are investigated. The cross-correlation between variance stabilized series is analyzed for sites located in Mexico City. Also, the correlation and distribution of modelling parameters in the Smart-1 dense array is investigated.     

黄河标准化堤防渗流稳定可靠性分析

针对黄河下游堤防特点,将可靠性理论应用于堤防渗流稳定分析,基于蒙特卡洛方法研制了渗流有限单元法分析程序。通过大量的试验研究,对黄河下游堤防各种土质的土性参数进行了统计分析,得出了各类土体渗透系数的分布规律,提出了黄河堤防渗透破坏标准的建议,根据土体单元渗透破坏概率分析了渗透破坏区域的确定方法。利用该研究成果,具体计算分析了黄河下游5个典型部位不同淤背宽度时堤防渗流稳定破坏概率,对堤防渗流稳定性和淤背体合理宽度进行了深入探讨,对黄河下游堤防的标准化建设具有重要指导意义。     

再生粗骨料取代率对混凝土抗压强度的影响

通过试验室条件下371块立方体试块抗压强度试验,研究了再生粗骨料取代率分别为0,30%,50%,100%(质量分数)的混凝土抗压强度的变异特性及概率分布特征.基于试验数据,得到了不同再生粗骨料取代率混凝土抗压强度的均值、方差和变异系数;采用正态分布模型对再生混凝土抗压强度的分布进行了检验;利用Monte-Carlo模拟方法对根据试验结果得到的分布规律进行了进一步验证.研究结果表明,再生混凝土抗压强度的变异系数与普通混凝土差别不大;可以用正态分布模型描述再生混凝土抗压强度的概率分布.最后根据统计分析和贝叶斯估计结果,建议了C30再生混凝土抗压强度的标准差取值.     

基于屈服接近度的围岩安全性随机分析

为研究岩体自身的非均质性对围岩松动区范围的影响效应,提出一套围岩稳定性的随机性分析方法。首先将屈服接近度的相补参量视为随机变量,通过对多种岩石室内强度试验数据的统计分析,研究相补参量的统计特征,表明相补参量服从Weibull分布。其次采用随机性分析方法模拟了围岩的随机松动区,结果较好地反映了非均质围岩的损伤破坏特点。同时,详细讨论工程中岩体的力学参数及相补参量的概率分布函数即Weibull分布函数的参数对围岩随机屈服区大小的影响规律。给出由围岩松动区的深度反演求得岩体力学参数和Weibull分布函数参数的进化神经网络方法。最后应用所提出的整套分析方法对一隧道非均质围岩的安全性进行了分析。研究结果表明,这一方法简单实用,能够较好地模拟非均质隧道围岩单元屈服的随机性和屈服区范围的随机波动性,所得结果与实际相符,可为工程的施工安全预测、支护方案设计等提供重要参考。     

住宅钢结构构件的可靠性分析

通过对钢结构构件加工误差的调查,利用概率理论得到构件抗力的分布特征。编写JC法和蒙特卡罗模拟法程序,计算得到住宅钢结构构件的可靠指标,为以后住宅钢结构的可靠性研究提供依据。     

Probabilistic Modelling in the Water Industry

The water authorities in England and Wales, which have now become water companies, recently had to provide anticipated costs for maintaining the water supply and sewerage systems over the next 20 years. Probabilistic models and statistical inference provide an opportunity to quantify the uncertainty in such exercises. Their use in a study undertaken by a water authority in the north-east of England is described and illustrated with interim data which were available at an early stage in the exercise.     

谈岩土工程的可靠性设计

探讨了岩土工程可靠性设计的发展历史，介绍了我国岩土工程可靠性设计现状，分析了可靠性设计本身的特点以及要解决的问题，运用可靠性设计原理能将所冒风险限制在可接受的范围内。     

考虑预应力随机性的点支幕墙索桁架可靠性分析

运用蒙特卡洛有限元法,考虑预应力的随机性,分析并计算了点支幕墙预应力索桁架支承体系的挠度最大值的统计特征值,得到其失效概率。进而对索桁架的预应力控制进行探讨。